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California: Latino vote 'makes a difference'. But do Republicans care?

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Despite having been ignored by Hispanic voters for two decades, the GOP still seems unwilling to win them back

Once a Republican citadel which welcomed presidential candidates from Goldwater to Bush, the southern Californian city of Santa Ana is no longer a bastion of conservatism. Street vendors hawking soccer T-shirts in their native Spanish outside packed taquerias and panaderias show the diverse face of the city and the size of the challenge to California's declining Republican Party in the heart of its ideological cradle, Orange County.

Santa Ana is a flashpoint for America's changing demographicsext. The city's Republican party is locked in a struggle with the statewide California Republican group, over how it can win back a burgeoning Latino population that has turned the state bright blue.

The city has shifted from having been the domain of fiery Republican Congressman "B-1" Bob Dornan to being represented by Democrat Loretta Sanchezext. Santa Ana is one of the few cities in the county where Democratic registration is much higher than that of the Republicans. In the 2008 presidential election, Barack Obama defeated John McCain in the city by a landslide – 65% to 32%.

"The Latino vote is going to make a big difference," said Tamar Jacoby, a self-described conservative who is president of ImmigrationWorks USAext, a federation of state-based pro-immigration business coalitions. "That's where the divide is in the Republican Party – people who get it and those for whom it doesn't matter."

Jacoby's organization, while non-partisan, has close ties to Republican forces favoring immigration reform and is among a small but growing group of conservatives who recognize that the party faces becoming irrelevant at state level. It can no longer elect a Republican to statewide office and it is on the verge of dropping below a one-third share of the state legislature. If the party wants to remain viable, it must recruit Latinos – and they are increasingly hostile to the party.

"Latinos don't agree with Democrats on many social issues, but they don't trust the Republican Party either," said California GOP political strategist Allan Hoffenblumext. Hispanics fear, Hoffenblum said, that the GOP's hard-line immigration policy "singles them out" for harassment and discrimination.

The Lincoln Club of Orange County, technically a non-partisan group, has long been a haven for relatively moderate Republicans. It recently broke the ice on the Republican immigration issue and departed from the conservative consensus.

"Republicans and a vast majority of Latinos agree that border security must be the first order of business. It's how Republicans propose to deal (or not deal) with the illegal immigrants who are already here that will either correct or exacerbate the perception that Republicans are racist," wrote Lincoln Club Executive Director Clare Venegas on Red County, a widely-read conservative website. "Core Republican values such as the belief in free markets, strong national security and family values are a natural starting point for potential immigration reforms that could appeal to Latinos without compromising conservative principles."

The Lincoln Club's three-point planext calls for increased border security and the creation of a guest-worker program that would allow foreign workers and illegal immigrants already in the US to apply for temporary work permits if they met requirements such as proof of employment and passed a criminal background check.

The proposal echoes much of the reform that was called for by George W Bush during his first term as president. It was Bush, not the Democrats, who put comprehensive immigration reform back on the national agenda, via his 2004 State of the Union speech. But any notion of immigration liberalization has since been erased from the Republican establishment agenda.

Jacoby argues that Bush's call to reform could serve as a model for whoever is elected president in 2012.

"Bush totally got the issue and was incredibly courageous on it," said Jacoby. "I can't praise his understanding enough – he was truly Nixon goes to China. A lot of people understand we need scientists, but he realized we also need agricultural workers and we need a legal way for them to come. It's also about dignity and family, and not making them crawl around in the shadows."

In the intervening years, however, the Republican Party abandoned calls for reform. In 2008 the presidential candidate John McCain, who a few years earlier had co-authored the most liberal of immigration reform measures with the Democrat Ted Kennedy, had moved back to a hardline position.

It is no surprise that some of the more advanced Republican proposals on immigration are coming from California, and, more precisely, Orange County.

California Republicans held power until in 1994 the then-GOP governor Pete Wilson, a moderate, lined up behind Proposition 187ext. It was to prove a fateful decision.

The proposition aimed to set up a citizenship-screening system that would cut off public services, including healthcare and education, from undocumented immigrants. It was slammed as unconstitutional and anti-immigrant. Wilson was re-elected on the crest of white support for the proposition, which was approved by a wide 59%-41% margin, but the courts blocked Proposition 187 and a backlash tidal wave of Latino registration and voting subsequently capsized the Republicans in California.

With the exception of the former governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, Republicans have not been able to elect a single statewide office holder for more than a decade.

"It's not what you say – it's how you say it. Harsh rhetoric against Latinos is endemic throughout the Republican Party," said Hoffenblum. "I'm Jewish and a lot of people would say to me, 'How come there aren't very many Jews in the Republican Party?' Well, if events back then were held at a country club where Jews weren't welcomed, people see that as anti-Semitic."

Some of the party's most influential Republicans are urging the GOP's 2012 presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, to reconsider his tone on the issue of immigration.

"Don't just talk about Hispanics and say immediately we must have controlled borders. Change the tone would be the first thing. Second, on immigration, I think we need to have a broader approach," said the former Florida Governor Jeb Bush in Juneext.

Despite the dilemma the GOP faces, for many Republicans the issue of immigration is rooted in principles – in particular, fiscal responsibility.

"It's a difficult challenge to the degree that demographics is destiny and to the extent that segments of society increasingly look to government for free stuff," said former Orange County State Assemblyman Chuck DeVore, now a senior visiting scholar at the Texas Public Policy Foundationext, giving voice to the prevailing party position on the issue. "Unless Republicans want to join Democrats in advocating for more government, it's doubtful whether they can win over this demographic unless they first convince them that less government is a better way to get good jobs."

Many prominent Republicans reject the notion that the GOP's support for Proposition 187 was a game-changing mistake. Instead, they say the issue remains one of exaggerated entitlement and that ultimately voters, including Latinos, will need to accept free-market principles more openly.

Recent election results have shown Santa Ana and Orange County Latinos voting in small majorities alongside Republicans on conservative social issues but remaining overwhelmingly Democratic on economic and tax issues and in presidential polling.

"Mitt Romney is a national businessman," said Jacoby. "I think he has to see and would see, as president, the economic benefits that immigrants bring. It's not a new debate – in some ways the sharpness of the debate within the party comes and goes."

Many Republicans recognize the need for some type of reform but are reluctant to reward anyone who entered the US illegally.

"We must remember that there are hundreds of thousands of legal immigrants in Orange County who waited their turn," said Shawn Steel, the Republican National Committeeman from California who is a former chairman of the state party. "That includes my wife, an immigrant from Korea." Reported by guardian.co.uk 5 minutes ago.

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