The Spike In Myanmar's Opium Production Could Destabilize All Of Asia

Despite efforts to combat the cultivation opium in Southeast Asia, production of the cash crop has doubled in the last six years and the price has risen dramatically, according to a new report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

In Myanmar, opium poppy cultivation has risen by 17 percent since 2011. And according to the report, over 300,000 households in the country have engage in opium cultivation in 2012.

But the increase in drug production is only part of a bigger story in the country; the failure of law enforcement to rein in opium production is just one example of the Myanmar government's inability to execute state functions, during a period of democratic political transition nonetheless.

The state also known as Burma is responsible for approximately 25 percent of the world's illicit opium cultivation — second only to Afghanistan — despite the fact that it has been following a 15-year plan to eradicate opium by 2014. "The opium numbers continue to head in the wrong direction", says UNODC Regional Representative for East Asia and the Pacific, Gary Lewis.

The state also lacks the resources to stifle recent civil strife and ethnic violence, which have led to scores of fatalities in recent months. The government claims that the bloodshed in the western region of the state could develop into "armed terrorist acts."

This clear struggle to carry out normal state functions — protect its population, enforce the law — is all the more worrisome based on the current state of Myanmar politics today. The country is on a slow yet steady path towards democracy, instituting key reforms which in turn to have led to the lifting of international sanctions and an influx of international investment.

**Myanmar's government is at a crossroads. If the transition to democracy ends up a failure, it could destabilize the entire region. Asian demand for heroin has grown significantly in the last year — China alone has over a million registered heroin users. If the Myanmar government cannot control opium production, the trade itself will only rise in value, destabilizing the path to democracy within the country, and empowering the criminal groups that control the drug trade in the region.

Since opium poppy cultivation in the Golden Triangle (made up of Myanmar, Laos, and Thailand) hit its trough in 2006, it has risen from 21,600 hectares in 2006 to 51,000 hectares in 2012 — an increase of 136 percent:

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