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Could the UK be the next Japan? There's no reason why not

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Both countries are suffering double dip recessions and are struggling with falling gross domestic product

For all their differences, Japan and Britain are quite alike. Both have experienced severe financial downturns that left their banks severely impaired. Both have had double dip recessions. Both are operating at levels of national output 3% below their recent peak.

Japan's recent performance has been wretched. The growth figures for the third quarter showed gross domestic product falling by 0.9%, largely as a result of weak demand for its exports.

Again mirroring Britain, consumer spending and investment struggled, and without higher post-tsunami reconstruction investment from the government the drop in GDP would have been still greater.

Japan's problems go deeper than the territorial spat with China, which only flared up in late September and had little impact on the third quarter growth figures. The country's export-dependent model has been suffering from an overvalued currency and a marked slowdown in global trade, and ministers have been urging the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to provide more monetary stimulus.

But, as in the UK, banks that sell bonds to the BoJ tend to sit on the cash. A more aggressive strategy – buying foreign bonds to drive down the value of the yen – does not appear under consideration. Meanwhile, the dire state of Japan's public finances – it has the highest net debt to GDP ratio in the G7 – makes expansionary fiscal policy difficult.

Could Britain become the next Japan? No reason why not. The concern in London should be that the difference between the two countries boils down to eight time zones and two decades. Reported by guardian.co.uk 2 hours ago.

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